EIA Raises 2026 Brent Forecast to $96: What It Means for Pakistan Petrol
The US EIA now forecasts Brent at $96 a barrel for 2026 and $84 for 2027. See what changed, why oil matters to Pakistan petrol prices, and what to watch next.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) now forecasts Brent crude at $96 a barrel on average for 2026 and $84 for 2027, up from $91 and $74 in its September outlook. Pakistan buys most of its fuel abroad, so a higher Brent forecast points to a heavier import bill and firm petrol prices.
Brent is the world's main oil price benchmark. The EIA is a US government statistics agency. We read its Short-Term Energy Outlook, released on 6 October 2026, and the Finance Division's September update on 21 October 2026.
EIA raised both its 2026 and 2027 Brent forecasts
The new outlook puts Brent at $96 a barrel for 2026, up 6 percent from the $91 forecast of 9 September. For 2027 it now says $84, up from $74. For comparison, the EIA lists $81 for 2024 and $69 for 2025.
| Brent, dollars a barrel | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 forecast | 2027 forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EIA October outlook | 81 | 69 | 96 | 84 |
| EIA September outlook | n/a | n/a | 91 | 74 |
Against 2025, the 2026 figure is $27 higher, about 39 percent, by our arithmetic. The 2027 figure is about 12 percent lower than 2026, so the EIA expects some easing, but from a higher base than it thought a month ago.
Supply is falling faster than demand, which keeps prices high
The Finance Division's update says global oil supply fell by 1.6 million barrels a day in August to 100.1 million. For 2026 it says supply is projected to drop 5.7 million barrels a day, more than twice the projected 2.5 million fall in demand.
Stocks have covered the gap. Inventories have fallen by 507 million barrels since February, which the update says leaves little cushion against further disruptions. That is why it names oil as the main source of external risk.
For Pakistan the channels are the import bill and fuel costs
The Finance Division names two channels: a bigger oil import bill and higher domestic fuel costs. Inflation reached 11.1 percent in August 2026, and the update ties much of that to oil passing into energy, transport and food costs.
The government's answer so far is the Prime Minister's Fuel Relief Scheme for lower income households, run digitally, without cutting the petroleum levy. Our report on the fuel relief scheme and its phase out covers who gets it.
A forecast does not set the Pakistani petrol price
Brent is one input. The petrol price in Pakistan also depends on the rupee rate, freight, the petroleum levy and taxes, and OGRA's notices. The EIA gives no Pakistani price, and we have not found an official forecast for petrol in 2027.
Readers who want the wider picture can see what official oil forecasts say for 2027, and how an oil shock reaches the household budget.
A higher forecast raises the risk to prices but not the date of the next change
Petrol prices in Pakistan are reset on a fixed cycle by official notice, so a forecast does not move the price on the day it is published. What it does is change the odds. A forecast of $96 for the full year means the months ahead are expected to average high, and that makes a cut less likely than it looked a month ago.
Be careful with annual averages too. A yearly figure hides the months. If Brent was lower early in the year, the rest of the year has to be higher to reach $96. We read only the annual table, so we cannot tell you the monthly path, and the EIA page we read does not give one for Pakistan.
The 2027 forecast of $84 is $12 below 2026, but it is $10 above the earlier 2027 forecast of $74. In plain words: the EIA thinks oil will ease next year, but less than it thought in September. For a family budget, that means planning for fuel to stay costly into 2027, not for a quick fall.
The Finance Division adds that inflation depends largely on international oil prices after September. That is the link between a US agency's forecast and the price of atta, transport and electricity at home.
Follow the next price change in four steps
Use this routine each fortnight when a new price is announced. It takes five minutes and stops you reacting to a headline.
- Note the date of any forecast you read, and who issued it.
- Compare it with that source's previous forecast.
- Check the official fuel price notice for the new petrol rate.
- Plan your monthly fuel spend with a buffer of about 10 percent.
Common questions
What is the EIA Brent forecast for 2026?
The EIA forecasts $96 a barrel for 2026 on average, up from $91 in its September outlook.
What is the EIA Brent forecast for 2027?
It forecasts $84 a barrel for 2027, up from $74 a month earlier.
Will petrol get more expensive in Pakistan?
A higher Brent forecast raises the risk, but the pump price also depends on the rupee, taxes and the levy. No official source gives a 2027 petrol price.
Why did the EIA raise its forecast?
We cannot say, because we read only the forecast tables. The Finance Division says supply is falling faster than demand and stocks are running down.
Where can I read the EIA forecast?
It is on the EIA website under Short-Term Energy Outlook, updated monthly. The October edition came out on 6 October 2026.
How we verified this
What we checked, where we read it, and what we could not confirm.
On 21 October 2026 we read the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook and the Finance Division's Monthly Economic Update and Outlook for September 2026. We could not read the International Energy Agency's October report because its page was blocked, so we did not use it. We found no official Pakistani petrol forecast for 2027.
About the author
Global Affairs & Political Economy Writer
Muhammad Hatim is a book lover who started writing because he enjoys it. At Pakistan Era he writes about international relations, geopolitics and the global economy, with a particular interest in South Asia and the forces behind current events.
