How to Work Out What a $1 Oil Price Move Does to Petrol in Pakistan
Every $1 a barrel moves petrol about Rs 1.74 a litre in Pakistan on OGRA's 21 October 2026 sheet. Use two sheets and four steps to check any price change.
Short answer: On OGRA's sheet of 21 October 2026, every $1 a barrel on the world price changes the petrol price by about Rs 1.74 a litre in Pakistan. Every Rs 1 on the dollar rate changes it by about Rs 0.88 for petrol and Rs 0.96 for diesel. Multiply, and you can predict a rough price move.
The Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) prints the whole petrol price formula on each daily sheet. Once you know three numbers from it, you can check a price change in under a minute. We worked the method out from the sheets effective 20 and 21 October 2026, and then tested it on the change between them.
One dollar a barrel moves the price by Rs 1.74 a litre
A barrel holds 158.98 litres, and OGRA converts dollars to rupees at the State Bank average rate, Rs 277.07 on 21 October. So $1 a barrel is Rs 277.07 divided by 158.98, which is Rs 1.74 a litre. The same figure works for petrol and diesel, because both use the same rate and barrel.
| World price change | Change per litre | Change on a 10 litre fill |
|---|---|---|
| $1 a barrel | Rs 1.74 | Rs 17.43 |
| $2 a barrel | Rs 3.49 | Rs 34.86 |
| $5 a barrel | Rs 8.71 | Rs 87.14 |
| $10 a barrel | Rs 17.43 | Rs 174.28 |
These are changes before customs duty and the small exchange rate adjustment, which OGRA works out separately. So treat the table as the main part of a move, not the whole of it. The full list of lines is in the petrol price formula.
A rupee move matters less than a dollar move, but it is quicker to check
A Rs 1 rise in the dollar rate adds Rs 0.88 to a litre of petrol and Rs 0.96 to a litre of diesel. That is the cost and freight price per barrel, $140.14 for petrol and $152.84 for diesel on 21 October, divided by 158.98 litres.
| Rupee move against the dollar | Petrol, Rs a litre | Diesel, Rs a litre |
|---|---|---|
| Rs 1 | 0.88 | 0.96 |
| Rs 5 | 4.41 | 4.81 |
| Rs 10 | 8.82 | 9.61 |
OGRA uses a seven working day average of the State Bank rate. The rate barely moved in October, from Rs 277.11 on 17 October to Rs 277.07 on 21 October. So in practice, the world price and the freight premium explain nearly every change.
The method follows four steps and takes a minute
To check a price change, take the two OGRA sheets, subtract the Gulf price lines, add the premium change, then multiply by 1.74. The result should land within a few paisas of the change in cost and freight in rupees. Customs and levies explain the rest.
- Open the two sheets on the OGRA price publications page, for example 20 and 21 October.
- Subtract the Gulf mean average, line A, to get the change in dollars. For petrol it is $120.35 minus $121.44, a fall of $1.09.
- Subtract the premium, line B, in the same way. For petrol it is $19.79 minus $18.41, a rise of $1.38.
- Add the two changes, $0.29, and multiply by 1.74. The answer is about Rs 0.51 a litre.
The test on 20 to 21 October matches the sheet
The method predicted a rise of Rs 0.51 a litre in the cost and freight price, and the sheets show Rs 244.24 against Rs 243.73, which is Rs 0.51. The petrol price itself rose Rs 0.88 because customs duty rose Rs 0.52 and the exchange rate adjustment fell Rs 0.49.
For diesel the Dubai price rose $0.32, so the method gives Rs 0.56. The sheets show cost and freight in rupees up Rs 0.53, from Rs 265.83 to Rs 266.36, after the rate eased a little. The final diesel price rose Rs 0.53. The day itself is in our report on the petrol price on 21 October.
| Item, petrol | 20 October | 21 October | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gulf mean average, $ a barrel | 121.44 | 120.35 | -1.09 |
| Premium including freight, $ a barrel | 18.41 | 19.79 | +1.38 |
| Cost and freight in rupees, a litre | 243.73 | 244.24 | +0.51 |
| Customs duty, a litre | 25.79 | 26.31 | +0.52 |
| Petrol price, a litre | 381.14 | 382.02 | +0.88 |
Diesel uses the same rate but a different set of dollar lines
For diesel, add the Dubai crude price, the Aramco premium, freight and insurance, and the diesel crack. On 21 October that is $108.34, minus $1.50, plus $8.00, plus $38.00, giving $152.84. The same 1.74 multiplier then applies to any change in those lines.
The crack was $38.00 on both sheets, so only the Dubai price mattered. If the crack falls by $4 a barrel, diesel falls by about Rs 6.97 a litre, as the diesel crack guide explains. Every sheet of the month is listed in the daily OGRA petrol and diesel prices in October 2026.
The method cannot predict tomorrow's price
The method explains a change after OGRA publishes a sheet. It cannot forecast one, because the Gulf figure is a seven working day rolling average and we do not know the next days' world prices. We also have not seen any official forecast of the freight premium or of customs duty.
Common questions
How much does $1 a barrel change the petrol price in Pakistan?
About Rs 1.74 a litre on the 21 October 2026 sheet, found by dividing the Rs 277.07 dollar rate by 158.98 litres in a barrel.
How much does Rs 1 on the dollar change the petrol price?
About Rs 0.88 a litre for petrol and Rs 0.96 for diesel, using the cost and freight price in dollars on the same sheet.
Why is the petrol price not exactly the method's answer?
Customs duty and the exchange rate adjustment move separately. On 21 October they added Rs 0.52 and took away Rs 0.49.
Where do I find the dollar lines?
They are lines A and B on the petrol sheet and lines A to D on the diesel sheet, at the top of each OGRA daily fuel price PDF.
Does the petroleum levy change with the world price?
No. The sheets of 20 and 21 October both show a levy of Rs 80 and a climate support levy of Rs 5 a litre.
How we verified this
What we checked, where we read it, and what we could not confirm.
We read the OGRA daily fuel price sheets effective 20 and 21 October 2026 on 21 October 2026, from the OGRA price publications page. The barrel size, rates and dollar lines are from those sheets. The multipliers and the test are our own arithmetic, and they are rounded. We did not verify what drives the freight premium.
About the author
Global Affairs & Political Economy Writer
Muhammad Hatim is a book lover who started writing because he enjoys it. At Pakistan Era he writes about international relations, geopolitics and the global economy, with a particular interest in South Asia and the forces behind current events.
