How Pakistan Sets the Diesel Price: Dubai Crude Plus a Fixed $41.89

Pakistan now prices diesel from Dubai crude oil plus a fixed $41.89 a barrel, called the HSD crack. OGRA has used this formula since 20 August 2026. On 9 October it gave diesel at Rs 395.72 a litre. Because the $41.89 has not changed on any sheet we opened, your diesel price now follows crude oil and the rupee, not the world diesel market.

That matters this autumn. The US government's energy forecaster said on 6 October that diesel markets are in "extreme tightness". The IMF chief spoke of "record-high retail prices for diesel" around the world. Yet in Pakistan diesel is cheaper than petrol, by Rs 3.24 a litre on 9 October. The formula is the reason.

Here is how the formula works, how to check it yourself on OGRA's daily sheet, and what it means for transporters and farmers.

OGRA switched diesel to a crude oil formula on 20 August 2026

Up to 19 August 2026, OGRA priced diesel from the Gulf price of finished diesel. From 20 August, its sheet starts from the Dubai crude oil price instead, then adds an Aramco premium, $8 for freight and insurance, and a fixed $41.89 "HSD crack". HSD means high speed diesel, the diesel sold at pumps.

We opened the two sheets side by side. The change shows up clearly in the dollar cost of a barrel of diesel landed in Pakistan.

The price fell Rs 32.63 a litre overnight. At the time, the cut was linked to talks between the government and local refineries, as we reported when diesel fell Rs 32.63 in a day. The sheet shows the mechanics: a fixed crack replaced the market price of diesel.

The $41.89 crack has not moved since August

A crack is the gap between the price of crude oil and the price of a fuel made from it, such as diesel. In normal markets it moves every day. On OGRA's sheet it has been exactly $41.89 a barrel on every date we checked, from 20 August to 9 October 2026.

OGRA's sheet describes the crack only as the "difference of international price of HSD and crude". It does not say who set the $41.89, how long it will last, or how it will be reviewed. We could not find a published notification that answers those questions, so we do not guess.

The practical effect is simple. When world diesel gets tighter, the crack in a free market would widen and diesel would cost more. On Pakistan's sheet, it stays put. Only the crude price, the Aramco premium, the rupee and local charges move.

Diesel now follows crude oil and the rupee

With the crack fixed, each $1 change in the Dubai crude average moves diesel by about Rs 1.74 a litre, at OGRA's 9 October rate of Rs 277.21 a dollar. Customs duty on diesel was a flat Rs 15.68 a litre on every sheet we opened, so it adds nothing extra.

You can see the crude link in the numbers. On 18 September the Dubai crude average was $124.75, and diesel peaked at Rs 424.92. By 9 October crude had eased to $107.74, and diesel was Rs 395.72. That $17.01 fall in crude explains almost all of the Rs 29.20 drop.

Petrol works differently. It is still priced from the Gulf price of finished petrol, so it carries any tightness in the petrol market straight through. That is why petrol overtook diesel in October. The petrol side is explained in what the oil shock means for your household budget.

How to check the diesel price yourself

OGRA publishes the sheet on each working day, and the diesel page shows every line. Checking it takes about two minutes. These are the steps we followed on 9 October.

1. Open OGRA's price publications page at ogra.org.pk and click the latest "Effective Dated" entry.
2. Scroll to the second page, headed "Diesel (HSD) Price Effective".
3. Read the "Dubai Crude Oil Platts Arab Gulf Mean Average". It is a seven working day average.
4. Check the "HSD Crack" line. If it is no longer $41.89, the formula has changed and big moves can follow.
5. Read the total at the bottom. This is the price before the cost of trucking fuel from the depot to your pump.

The crack line is the one to watch. If it rises to match the world market, diesel could jump by several rupees at once. If the Dubai crude average is rising day after day, smaller rises are already on the way, because the sheet passes changes on over seven working days.

Daily prices for both fuels are logged in petrol price today in Pakistan. If a pump charges more than the notified price or gives short measure, you can complain about a petrol pump.

What the formula means for transporters and farmers

Diesel moves goods trucks, buses, tractors and tube wells. A diesel price that follows crude, and ignores the world diesel squeeze, is easier to plan around for transporters and farmers in the autumn sowing season. But it can change without warning.

Of the Rs 395.72 on 9 October, Rs 85 was levies set by the federal government, Rs 80 petroleum levy and Rs 5 climate support levy. Margins for oil companies and dealers and inland freight added about Rs 22.60. Those parts do not move with oil at all.

For a tractor that burns 200 litres in a sowing round, every Rs 10 a litre is Rs 2,000. Fixing the crack has held that bill down this autumn. If the crack is ever reset to the market, budget for a higher figure.

Common questions

What is the diesel price in Pakistan today?

OGRA set high speed diesel at Rs 395.72 a litre from 9 October 2026. Prices change on working days.

What is the HSD crack?

It is the gap between the price of crude oil and the price of diesel. OGRA's sheet uses a fixed $41.89 a barrel for it.

Since when has OGRA used the crude oil formula for diesel?

Since the sheet effective 20 August 2026. The 19 August sheet still used the Gulf price of finished diesel.

Why is diesel cheaper than petrol in Pakistan now?

Diesel uses Dubai crude plus a fixed crack, while petrol uses the Gulf price of finished petrol. On 9 October petrol was Rs 398.96 and diesel Rs 395.72.

How much does $1 of crude oil add to diesel?

About Rs 1.74 a litre at OGRA's 9 October exchange rate. Customs on diesel is a flat Rs 15.68, so it does not add more.

Will the $41.89 crack change?

No official date or review rule has been published. Check the "HSD Crack" line on each day's OGRA sheet.

How we verified this

What we checked, where we read it, and what we could not confirm.

Last checked 9 October 2026, about 3:30 am PKT. We read OGRA price sheets effective 19, 20 and 21 August, 1 and 18 September, and 1, 8 and 9 October 2026, and the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook of 6 October 2026. The comparison tables and per-dollar figure are our own reading of OGRA's sheets.