PMD Finds No Drought in Pakistan, but Western Balochistan Has Gone 186 Days Without Rain

Short answer: the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) says normal conditions, with no drought, prevailed across Pakistan in September 2026, and it expects that to hold through October. The one warning sign is western Balochistan, where some areas have gone up to 186 days in a row without rain. PMD says the area needs close monitoring.

That comes from PMD's Monthly Drought Bulletin for September 2026, posted in early October by its National Drought Monitoring and Early Warning Centre (NDMC). We read the full bulletin, and the centre's weekly update dated 8 October 2026, on PMD's website on 9 October. Here is what they found, region by region, and what PMD tells farmers to do this month.

PMD finds no drought anywhere in Pakistan for September 2026

PMD's drought monitor for September 2026 shows normal conditions across the whole country. It combines several satellite and ground indicators, and none of them put any district in drought. PMD credits the widespread September rain and stable dam levels, and expects normal conditions in October too.

That is good news for a month that started with a gloomy forecast. In early September, PMD expected below normal rain over most of Pakistan, and that broadly came true. But the rain that did fall was spread widely enough to keep soil and reservoirs out of trouble.

A drought bulletin is not a weather forecast. It looks back at a month of rain, heat, soil moisture and plant health, then judges whether water stress is building. "Normal" here means no drought, not a perfect month.

Western Balochistan has gone up to 186 days without rain

Parts of western Balochistan have recorded up to 186 consecutive dry days, counted from 29 March to 30 September 2026. That is about six months with no rain at all. PMD also found long dry spells across southwestern Balochistan, and says the area warrants close monitoring.

The contrast with the rest of the country is sharp. Across Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Kashmir, the longest dry spell was between 0 and 10 days. Parts of northern and eastern Balochistan and southern Sindh were in the same low range.

A second measure, the Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI), points the same way. It compares land heat with plant cover to judge soil moisture. From 29 August to 13 September it showed dry conditions in western and southwestern Balochistan, central and southeastern Punjab and parts of Sindh.

So the national verdict is "normal", but the western edge of Balochistan is the place to watch. Six months without rain is a long time for any farm.

Rain was above normal in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and below normal in Sindh

September rain was below normal in most of Pakistan. It was above normal only in parts of Punjab, most of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and parts of Gilgit-Baltistan, by up to 150 mm. Sindh and most of Balochistan fell short by up to 60 mm, with no rain at all in much of Balochistan.

PMD names the stations that did best: Chaklala airbase, Islamabad, Dir, Mianwali and Muzaffarabad all recorded more rain than normal. The comparison is against the 1991 to 2020 average.

September was 1 to 3°C warmer than normal in most of Pakistan

Mean temperatures in September 2026 ran 1 to 3°C above normal across most of the country, PMD says. Quetta was the outlier, at up to 4°C above normal. Monthly means ranged from 15°C in the north to 35°C in the south.

A few areas were slightly cooler than usual, by up to 1°C. These were upper and eastern Punjab, parts of eastern and western Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, parts of southern Balochistan and a few areas of Gilgit-Baltistan.

The heat has carried into October. PMD's weekly update for 1 to 7 October found temperatures above normal over most of the country, by 1 to 9°C. Kohat and Murree were the exceptions, up to 6°C below normal. Rain that week was mostly below normal, except in central and southeastern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and around Sialkot.

Tarbela and Mangla water levels fell during September

Water levels in Pakistan's two big dams, Tarbela and Mangla, dropped during September 2026, PMD's bulletin says. It puts them at 1,524 feet and 1,211 feet. Khanpur dam rose, while Rawal and Simly stayed stable.

PMD still calls overall reservoir levels stable, and that is one reason it expects no drought in October. The bulletin does not give a date for the two dam levels.

PMD expects a wetter north and a drier south in October

For October 2026, PMD expects near normal to above normal rain in the north, especially northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, Azad Kashmir, northwestern Punjab and northern Balochistan. The south, especially southern Sindh, may get slightly below normal rain. Temperatures should stay above normal everywhere.

That matches the PMD outlook for October to December, which also pointed to a warmer season and a wetter north. In the short run, the weekly update forecasts mainly dry weather from 8 to 14 October, with isolated evening storms in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab, the Potohar region, Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan. It warns of isolated windstorms and hail on 10 October.

What PMD tells farmers to do in October

PMD calls October a critical change-over between the kharif harvest and rabi sowing. Its advice is to harvest during dry spells, drain fields in the rain-prone north, scout often for pests in the warm weather, and save soil moisture in the dry south for rabi land preparation.

Here is its crop advice, in order.

1. Finish harvesting cotton, rice, maize and vegetables during dry spells, and keep picked cotton away from rain and damp.
2. In the wetter north and upper areas, make sure fields drain, so water does not stand.
3. Harvest ripe rice and maize before rain, to avoid flattened crops, lost grain and fungal disease.
4. Check cotton, vegetables and orchards often, because warm, humid weather favours insects and disease.
5. In the dry south, save water, irrigate carefully, and use leftover soil moisture to prepare land for rabi crops.

Rabi crops are the winter crops, wheat above all. If you are planning the wheat crop, the dates and seed rates are in wheat sowing in Punjab for 2026.

Common questions

Is there a drought in Pakistan right now?

No. PMD's drought monitor shows normal conditions across the country for September 2026, and it expects the same in October. Western Balochistan is the only area it flags for close monitoring.

Which part of Pakistan has had the longest dry spell?

Parts of western Balochistan, with up to 186 consecutive dry days between 29 March and 30 September 2026.

Was September 2026 hotter than normal?

Yes. Most of Pakistan was 1 to 3°C above normal, and Quetta up to 4°C. A few parts of upper Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan and Gilgit-Baltistan were slightly cooler.

Will October 2026 be rainy?

In the north, probably near or above normal. In the south, especially southern Sindh, slightly below normal. The first half of October is forecast to be mainly dry, with isolated storms in the north.

Where can I read PMD's drought bulletin myself?

On the NDMC bulletins page of weather.gov.pk. Monthly and fortnightly drought bulletins and weekly weather updates are free PDFs. PMD also lists its forecasts and warnings on the same site.

How we verified this

What we checked, where we read it, and what we could not confirm.

Last checked on 9 October 2026. We downloaded and read PMD's Monthly Drought Bulletin for September 2026 and the NDMC's Weekly Weather Update for 1 to 7 October 2026, dated 8 October 2026, from the NDMC bulletins page on PMD's website. All figures in this article come from those two documents. The monthly bulletin carries no issue date of its own; the bulletins page shows it was posted in early October.