PMD Outlook for October to December 2026: Warmer Across Pakistan, Wetter North
PMD expects a warmer than normal October to December 2026 in Pakistan, with more rain in the north, near normal rain in the south and a fog and smog warning.
The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) expects a warmer than normal October to December 2026 across most of Pakistan. It sees normal to above normal rain in the north and near normal to slightly below normal rain in the centre and south. It warns of fog and smog in the plains.
We read the PMD outlook for October to December 2026 on weather.gov.pk on 3 October. It is a four page PDF, issued on 1 October 2026, and it is linked from the PMD home page. It covers the whole season up to the end of December, so it is the first official PMD view of the coming winter.
A seasonal outlook gives the likely direction of the weather, not daily rain. PMD compares the next three months with the 30 year average for 1991 to 2020. It says the outlook should be used alongside its short term forecasts.
PMD expects a warmer than normal season across Pakistan
PMD expects mean temperatures to stay above normal over most of Pakistan from October to December 2026. Its models agree most strongly on warmth over Gilgit-Baltistan and the nearby north of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Kashmir and western Balochistan are also named.
That is a slightly stronger signal than the autumn view. The PMD autumn outlook for September to November spoke of "slightly above normal" temperatures. The new outlook drops the word "slightly".
In plain terms, winter may arrive late. Nights will still cool, but days in the plains may stay warm for longer than people expect. The PMD forecast for 3 to 8 October already shows highs near 40°C in parts of Sindh.
Rain outlook: wetter north, near normal centre and south
PMD sees a general tendency for normal to above normal rain in most of Pakistan this season. The biggest surplus is expected over central and northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir and northern Punjab. Southern Sindh may get slightly less rain than normal.
| Region | Rain, October to December 2026 | Temperature |
|---|---|---|
| Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir | Above normal most likely | Above normal, strongest signal in Gilgit-Baltistan |
| Central and northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa | Above normal, largest surplus | Above normal, strong signal in the north |
| Northern Punjab | Normal to above normal | Above normal |
| Western hilly areas | Above normal more likely | Above normal, western Balochistan named |
| Southern Punjab and southern Balochistan | Near normal most likely | Above normal |
| Sindh | Near normal, slightly below in the south | Above normal |
PMD built the outlook from 10 global climate models, combined into one result. Two ocean patterns drive it. The Indian Ocean Dipole is positive now and should turn neutral by the end of the season. El Niño, the warm phase of the Pacific cycle, is expected to stay through December.
October to December is a dry season for most of Pakistan anyway. So "above normal" in the north means more than a small normal total, not a monsoon.
Sindh got half its normal rain in July to September
PMD's review of the monsoon season shows Pakistan got 120.5 mm of rain from July to September 2026, 19.3 per cent below normal. Sindh was 50.8 per cent short and Balochistan 33.7 per cent short. Punjab was close to normal, and Gilgit-Baltistan was slightly above.
| Region | Rain (mm) | Normal (mm) | Against normal | Temperature above normal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pakistan | 120.5 | 149.2 | 19.3% below | 1.0°C |
| Punjab | 241.4 | 251 | 3.8% below | 0.6°C |
| Khyber Pakhtunkhwa | 226.7 | 270.9 | 16.3% below | 0.5°C |
| Sindh | 71.1 | 144.3 | 50.8% below | 1.1°C |
| Balochistan | 39.1 | 58.9 | 33.7% below | 1.4°C |
| Gilgit-Baltistan | 54.1 | 51.8 | 4.6% above | 0.3°C |
| Azad Kashmir | 302.8 | 371.3 | 18.4% below | 0.6°C |
PMD says one rain spell in the first week of August reached most of Sindh and southern Balochistan. After that, no significant rain fell there, and the dry spell went on. Balochistan was the hottest against normal, then Sindh.
Put the two together and the south starts the winter dry, with no big rain expected to fix that.
PMD warns of fog and smog in the plains
PMD says near to below normal rain in central and southern Pakistan may raise the risk of fog and smog in the plain areas. It warns this can worsen air quality and harm health and visibility. It gives no date and no pollution level.
Rain washes dust and smoke out of the air. A dry, still season does the opposite. That is why the warning matters most for Lahore, Faisalabad, Gujranwala and Multan, where the smog season in Punjab usually peaks in November and December.
Fog is the second risk. Dense fog on cold nights closes roads every winter, and drivers should know how fog closures on motorways work before the first one. PMD's outlook does not say when fog will start.
Dengue stays active in October and November
PMD expects dengue to stay active in October and November, mostly in warm and humid cities. It expects cases to fall towards December as it gets colder. It asks for stronger mosquito control and for standing water to be removed.
A warmer than normal season could keep mosquitoes going a little longer. PMD does not put a number on that. Knowing the dengue warning signs still matters until the cold sets in.
Farmers, water and snow: what PMD advises
PMD says rain in the northwest may help timely Rabi sowing, while drier southern areas may need more irrigation early in the Rabi season. It warns of hail, showers and windstorms during the October harvest. It expects late snow at lower heights in the north.
These are the impacts PMD lists in the outlook, in its own order:
- Isolated showers, hailstorms or windstorms, mainly in October, may disrupt the Kharif harvest and post-harvest work, mostly in the northwest. Farmers should take precautions.
- Good rain in the northwest may support timely Rabi sowing. Drier conditions in the south may raise irrigation needs early in the Rabi season.
- Near to below normal rain in central and southern Pakistan may bring fog and smog to the plains.
- Dengue may stay active in October and November, then decline towards December.
- Above normal temperatures may delay snow at lower heights in Gilgit-Baltistan, northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Kashmir. Snow and rain from November may cause unstable snowpack and local avalanches on steep slopes.
Rabi is the winter crop season, and wheat is its main crop. Farmers planning wheat sowing in Punjab in the south of the province should plan for water rather than rain.
On water, PMD only mentions irrigation needs. The outlook says nothing about dam levels or canal supplies, so we do not add a figure it does not give.
Common questions
Will winter 2026 be warmer than normal in Pakistan?
PMD expects so. Its outlook for October to December 2026 forecasts above normal mean temperatures over most of Pakistan, with the strongest signal in Gilgit-Baltistan and northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Will there be more rain this winter?
In the north, probably. PMD expects normal to above normal rain over northern Pakistan. Central and southern parts, including southern Punjab and Sindh, are more likely to get near normal rain.
When was the October to December outlook issued?
On 1 October 2026. PMD updates its seasonal outlook in the first week of every month, so a November to January view should follow in early November.
Does PMD predict smog this year?
It warns of a higher risk. PMD says near to below normal rain in central and southern Pakistan may increase fog and smog in the plains. It gives no dates or levels.
Is a seasonal outlook the same as a weather forecast?
No. It shows the likely trend over three months against the 30 year average. For rain on a given day, use PMD's daily forecast and weekly outlook.
What does PMD say about dengue?
It says dengue may stay active in October and November in warm, humid cities and decline towards December. It asks for vector control and removal of standing water.
How we verified this
What we checked, where we read it, and what we could not confirm.
Last checked 3 October 2026, about 4:30am PKT. We read the PMD Outlook for October-November-December 2026, issue date 1 October 2026, which is linked from the weather.gov.pk home page. Every rain and temperature figure, the regional outlook and the impacts list above come from that document. We compared it with the PMD September to November outlook issued on 2 September. The daily temperatures come from PMD's weekly outlook and daily forecast of 2 October. No press reports were used.
About the author
Public Services and Education Journalist
Fajr Riaz is a journalist and content writer at Pakistan Era, based in Lahore. She covers the questions people meet in everyday life in Pakistan: how a public service works, what a change in the rules means, and where to find a reliable answer.
