PMD Forecast for Pakistan, 3 to 8 October 2026: Mostly Dry, Rain Only in the North
PMD expects mostly dry, hot weather in Pakistan until 8 October 2026, with isolated rain in the north on 6 and 8 October. City temperatures and October risks.
The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) expects mostly dry and hot weather across Pakistan from 3 to 8 October 2026. Isolated rain and thunderstorms are possible only in upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir and Pothohar, on 6 and 8 October. PMD has issued no rain advisory for this week.
We read PMD's weekly outlook, its daily forecast and its monthly outlook for October on the weather.gov.pk website on the night of 2 October. The weekly outlook is dated 2 October and runs to Thursday 8 October. None of the three documents forecasts widespread or heavy rain for the plains.
If you have seen a message saying heavy rain and hail will hit Lahore, Islamabad and Peshawar from 5 to 8 October, check its date. Reports with those exact dates and district lists were published on 4 October 2024, two years ago. PMD's press release page lists no new rain advisory since 11 September 2026, and the National Disaster Management Authority's latest weather advisory is also dated 11 September.
PMD forecasts mostly dry weather until 8 October
PMD's weekly outlook, issued on 2 October, says "mainly dry weather" for most of Pakistan every day from Saturday 3 October to Thursday 8 October. Plains stay hot in the daytime. The north may see clouds, and isolated showers on two days.
The reason is simple. PMD says continental air, which is dry air from over land, is over most of the country. No westerly wave, the weather system that usually brings autumn rain to the north, is named in this week's outlook.
| Day | PMD weekly outlook (issued 2 October 2026) |
|---|---|
| Saturday 3 October | Dry in most parts, hot in plain areas in the daytime |
| Sunday 4 October | Mainly dry in most parts, hot in plain areas in the daytime |
| Monday 5 October | Mainly dry, hot in plains, partly cloudy in northern areas |
| Tuesday 6 October | Mainly dry. Isolated rain, wind and thunderstorm possible in upper KP, Gilgit-Baltistan, Pothohar and Kashmir |
| Wednesday 7 October | Mainly dry, hot in plains, partly cloudy in northern areas |
| Thursday 8 October | Mainly dry. Rain, wind and thunderstorm at isolated places in upper KP, Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir |
"Isolated places" is PMD's term for a few scattered spots, not a whole district. So most people in the north will still have a dry day on 6 and 8 October.
Rain is possible only in the north on 6 and 8 October
The only rain PMD mentions this week is on Tuesday 6 October and Thursday 8 October. It covers upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir on both days, and Pothohar, the Rawalpindi and Islamabad belt, on Tuesday only. Lahore, Karachi, Multan and Quetta are not named.
Upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa means the hilly northern districts, such as Chitral, Dir, Swat and the Hazara belt. Pothohar covers Rawalpindi, Islamabad, Attock, Chakwal and Jhelum.
We think this matters most for tourists heading north this week. PMD's October outlook, covered below, warns that isolated showers, hail and strong winds can come with little notice in autumn. Check the daily forecast before you leave for Swat, Naran or Hunza.
Plains stay hot, with Sindh near 40°C
PMD's daily forecast of 2 October gives Lahore a high of 36 to 38°C on Saturday and Sunday, and Faisalabad and Multan 37 to 39°C. Sindh is hotter. Dadu and Nawabshah could reach 41 to 43°C, and Karachi 35 to 37°C.
| City | Saturday 3 October | Sunday 4 October |
|---|---|---|
| Islamabad | 35 to 37°C | 35 to 37°C |
| Lahore | 36 to 38°C | 36 to 38°C |
| Karachi | 35 to 37°C | 35 to 37°C |
| Peshawar | 35 to 37°C | 35 to 37°C |
| Quetta | 33 to 35°C | 33 to 35°C |
| Multan | 37 to 39°C | 37 to 39°C |
| Dadu | 41 to 43°C | 41 to 43°C |
On 2 October itself, the hottest places were Dadu and Shaheed Benazirabad at 41°C, then Mithi and Nokkundi at 40°C. The only rain PMD recorded in the past 24 hours was 1 mm in Khuzdar, Balochistan.
These numbers are early October. They feel more like late summer. PMD's September rain spells, like the storms of 27 and 28 September, cooled the north briefly, but dry heat has since returned.
PMD's October outlook expects a warmer month than normal
PMD's monthly outlook for October 2026, issued on 1 October, expects above-normal temperatures across the whole country. It expects near-normal to above-normal rain in the north and near-normal to slightly below-normal rain in central and southern parts, with Sindh driest.
The outlook also looks back at September. Pakistan got 20.6 mm of rain against a normal of 29.3 mm, which is 29.6 per cent below normal. Sindh got 3.2 mm against a normal of 31.1 mm, a shortfall of 89.5 per cent. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab were close to normal.
The outlook follows PMD's three-month autumn outlook, which already pointed to a warmer season. PMD bases the monthly view on 10 global forecast models. It says the outlook gives trends, not exact daily forecasts.
PMD warns of dengue, smog and crop risks this month
PMD's October outlook lists the risks this weather brings. Warm, humid air helps dengue mosquitoes breed in central KP and northwest Punjab. Dry heat can worsen air quality and smog in the plains. Hail and wind may harm crops.
These are the impacts and advice PMD lists in its October outlook:
- Dry weather in the south suits the harvest of Kharif crops, especially rice, cotton, maize and groundnut.
- Isolated showers, hail and strong winds may disrupt the Kharif harvest and early Rabi sowing.
- Warm and humid air will help dengue larvae breed in central Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and northwest Punjab, and standing water can lead to outbreaks.
- Dry, warm conditions may worsen air quality and bring smog to the central and southern plains and cities, a risk for children and the elderly.
- Farmers should check PMD advisories before irrigation or sowing, and travellers should take care during rain.
Dengue is the risk we would watch first. Empty water from coolers, pots and tyres once a week, and learn the dengue warning signs that need a hospital visit. The smog season in Punjab brings its own rules each winter.
Above-normal heat in the glacier areas may also raise river flows at some spots, PMD says, though it rates the chance as low.
Common questions
Will it rain in Pakistan from 5 to 8 October 2026?
Only in a few places in the north. PMD's weekly outlook gives isolated rain and thunderstorms in upper KP, Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir and Pothohar on 6 October, and in upper KP, Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir on 8 October. The rest of the country stays mainly dry.
Has PMD issued a heavy rain advisory for October 2026?
No. As of the night of 2 October, PMD's latest rain advisory is dated 11 September 2026. A heavy rain message with the dates 5 to 8 October matches reports from October 2024.
Will it rain in Lahore this week?
PMD does not forecast rain for Lahore up to 8 October. It expects dry weather and highs of 36 to 38°C on 3 and 4 October.
Will it rain in Islamabad this week?
Possibly, but only in isolated spots. Pothohar, which includes Islamabad and Rawalpindi, is named for isolated rain and thunderstorms on Tuesday 6 October. Other days are forecast dry.
Is October 2026 going to be hotter than normal?
Yes, PMD expects that. Its October outlook forecasts above-normal mean temperatures across Pakistan, with the largest rise over Gilgit-Baltistan and western Balochistan.
Where can I check the latest PMD forecast?
On weather.gov.pk, under Forecast. The daily forecast is issued twice a day and the weekly outlook covers seven days. Our PMD forecast and warnings explainer shows what each product means.
How we verified this
What we checked, where we read it, and what we could not confirm.
Last checked 3 October 2026, about 4:00am PKT. We read PMD's weekly weather outlook, dated 2 October 2026, for the day by day text from 3 to 8 October. We read the daily forecast issued at 17:30 on 2 October for the city temperatures, the past 24 hour weather and the highest temperatures. We read PMD's monthly outlook for October 2026, dated 1 October, for the September rainfall table, the October rain and temperature outlook and the impacts list. We checked PMD's press release page and the NDMA advisories page: the latest rain advisory on both is dated 11 September 2026. The temperatures are forecast ranges and can change, so check the next daily forecast before you plan around them.
About the author
Public Services and Education Journalist
Fajr Riaz is a journalist and content writer at Pakistan Era, based in Lahore. She covers the questions people meet in everyday life in Pakistan: how a public service works, what a change in the rules means, and where to find a reliable answer.
