PMD Expects a Warmer Autumn in Pakistan, With Smog Risk Late in the Season

The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) expects a slightly warmer than normal autumn across most of Pakistan from September to November 2026. It sees normal to above normal rain in the north, and it warns that long dry spells late in the season can bring fog and smog to the plains.

We read the PMD's seasonal outlook for September, October and November 2026 on weather.gov.pk on 30 September 2026. It was issued on 2 September. The PMD says it updates this outlook in the first week of every month, so the next one, which will reach into December, is due in early October.

A seasonal outlook is not a daily forecast. It compares the coming three months with the 30-year average for 1991 to 2020 and gives a likely direction, warmer or cooler, wetter or drier. It cannot tell you whether it will rain in Lahore next Tuesday.

PMD autumn outlook 2026 points to a warmer season

The PMD expects mean temperatures to stay slightly above normal over most of Pakistan in September to November 2026. Eastern Gilgit-Baltistan and western Balochistan may run above normal. The models agree most strongly on warmth in southern Balochistan and western Sindh.

That matters for anyone waiting for the heat to break. A warmer autumn means the plains stay hot for longer in the day, even as nights start to cool. The PMD's own weekly outlook, issued on 30 September, shows mainly dry weather across most of the country until 6 October, with hot days in the plains.

The only break in that week is a shallow westerly wave. The PMD expects it to touch the northern parts on Thursday 1 October, with isolated rain, wind or thunderstorm possible in Gilgit-Baltistan and nearby hills. This matches the dry, hot weather the PMD forecast from the start of this week.

Rain outlook: wetter north, drier south

The PMD projects normal to above normal rain over most of Pakistan this season. The biggest surplus is expected over northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the nearby north of Punjab. Southern Punjab, southeastern Sindh and eastern Balochistan should see near normal to slightly below normal rain.

The outlook splits the country into two halves. Read your own region, not the national headline.

The PMD says it built the outlook from 10 global seasonal models, combined into one result. Two ocean patterns are in play. The Indian Ocean Dipole has moved into a positive phase, and El Niño is expected to grow stronger. The PMD says the two tend to cancel each other out over Pakistan, which is one reason the signal is mixed.

Fog and smog risk rises in the plains late in the season

The PMD warns that long dry spells towards the end of the season may raise the risk of fog and smog in the plain areas. It says this can harm air quality, people's health and visibility. For Punjab, that points to November.

This is the part of the outlook most families will feel. The PMD does not give a date or a smog level, and a seasonal outlook cannot. But dry, still weather is exactly what lets pollution settle near the ground. So the warning is worth acting on early.

Anyone in Lahore, Faisalabad, Gujranwala or Multan should get ready now for the smog season in Punjab. The same dry, cold nights also bring thick fog to roads, and drivers who use the motorway at night should know how fog closures on motorways work before the first one.

1. Check the air quality reading each morning before school runs or outdoor work.
2. Keep windows shut on bad air days, and open them only when the reading improves.
3. Buy a well-fitting mask rated for fine particles, not a loose cloth one.
4. Plan long drives in daylight once fog warnings start.
5. Watch the PMD's daily forecast, since the seasonal outlook only gives the trend.

Drought and dengue warnings for the south and the cities

The PMD expects moisture shortages to grow across rain-fed areas of southern Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan. It links this to dry conditions and an early monsoon retreat. It also warns that warm, humid weather may raise dengue risk in late September and October.

On drought, the PMD's wording is careful. It says that if these conditions continue, they may lead to drought in those regions. That is a risk, not a declaration. Farmers in rain-fed land should still plan their Rabi sowing around it.

On dengue, the PMD names major urban centres as the main risk. It asks for stronger mosquito control and removal of standing water. The warning signs of dengue are worth knowing before someone at home gets a fever.

The outlook also flags two September risks that should fade as the season goes on: urban flooding from heavy spells in big cities, and flash floods and glacial lake outbursts in the high mountains.

Summer 2026 ended drier than normal in most provinces

June to August 2026 brought 190.8 mm of rain to Pakistan against a normal of 215.4 mm, a shortfall of 11.4 per cent. Punjab was the only province above normal. Sindh had 57.1 per cent less rain than normal, the largest shortfall.

Temperatures over the summer were 0.5°C above normal for the country as a whole, the PMD says. Gilgit-Baltistan ran warmest against its normal, at 1.0°C above. The PMD's September rain outlook had already expected below normal rain for most of the country this month.

Common questions

Will this winter be colder in Pakistan?

The PMD has not issued a winter outlook yet. Its current outlook runs to November and expects slightly warmer than normal temperatures. The next monthly update, due in early October, will cover December.

When does smog start in Punjab this year?

The PMD gives no date. It says long dry spells late in the September to November season may raise the fog and smog risk in the plains.

Will it rain in October 2026?

The north is more likely to get normal or above normal rain. The PMD's weekly outlook shows mainly dry weather across most of the country until 6 October.

How often does the PMD update the seasonal outlook?

Every month, in the first week, according to the PMD's own note on the outlook.

Is Sindh facing drought?

Not declared. The PMD says moisture shortages may grow in rain-fed areas of Sindh, southern Punjab and Balochistan, and could lead to drought if dry conditions continue.

How we verified this

What we checked, where we read it, and what we could not confirm.

Last checked on 30 September 2026. The rain and temperature outlook, the impacts, the summer rain table and the update schedule are read in the PMD outlook for September to November 2026, issued on 2 September 2026. The dry week ahead and the westerly wave on 1 October are read in the PMD weekly weather outlook of 30 September 2026. The PMD had not published an outlook reaching into December when we checked.