PMD Outlook 19 to 24 October 2026: Dry Across Pakistan, Karachi at 40 and Cold Nights in the North

The Pakistan Meteorological Department expects dry weather in most parts of the country from 19 to 24 October 2026, with cold mornings and nights in the north and only isolated light rain in Gilgit-Baltistan, Chitral and Kashmir. Karachi is forecast at 38 to 40 degrees on 19 October and 39 to 41 on the 20th, while Lahore sits at 31 to 33. The outlook was issued on 18 October.

We read the PMD weekly outlook and its daily forecast, both issued on 18 October 2026, on weather.gov.pk, which is the department's live forecasting site. The outlook says continental air is prevailing over most of the country, with a shallow westerly trough over the extreme north. In plain terms: dry air from the land, not moist air from the sea, and nothing big coming in from the west.

Dry weather holds across most of Pakistan until at least 24 October

Every day in the outlook from Sunday 18 to Saturday 24 October carries the same first line: dry or mainly dry weather in most parts of the country. The only exceptions are small. Isolated light rain or a thunderstorm may occur in Gilgit-Baltistan and nearby hills on the 18th, 19th and 21st, in Chitral and Ghizer on the 20th, in Kashmir on the 23rd, and at isolated places in upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan on the 24th.

This follows the wet spell of 10 to 15 October, when a westerly wave brought rain and hail to Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. That system has passed. PMD's seasonal view, set out in its outlook for October to December 2026, expected a warmer than normal season across the country, and this week fits it.

Karachi stays at 38 to 40 while Mithi touches 42

The daily forecast issued at 5:30 pm on 18 October gives city maximums for Sunday 18, Monday 19 and Tuesday 20 October. Sindh is the hot corner. Karachi is forecast at 38 to 40 degrees on the 18th and 19th and 39 to 41 on the 20th, with humidity of 31 per cent. Mithi is 40 to 42 then 41 to 43. Thatta and Nawabshah are 37 to 39, Hyderabad 36 to 38 and Sukkur 35 to 37.

The sheet gives each city's recorded maximum for 18 October alongside the three forecast ranges, and the first forecast column covers Sunday night into Monday. Treat the ranges as the daytime high. PMD issues a fresh sheet every evening, so the Tuesday column will be refined before it arrives.

Nights are turning cold in the hills, with Murree at 19 to 21 by day

For Khyber Pakhtunkhwa the forecast says dry in most districts, partly cloudy in the upper districts, with cold conditions in the morning and at night. Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan get the same cold-at-night line. Murree's daytime high is 19 to 21, Rawalakot 20 to 22, Kakul 23 to 25 and Kalat 23 to 25.

The daily sheet's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa table has some odd entries. Dir shows a maximum of 24 but a Sunday range of 15 to 17 and then 28 to 30 on Tuesday, and Malam Jabba shows a maximum of 16 against a forecast of 27 to 29. Those look like typing errors on the sheet, so we have left the upper KP stations out of the table above rather than print them as fact.

Anyone heading north should check the minimum, not only the maximum. The way to read last night's low for your town is in the guide to checking the minimum temperature on PMD, and the hill station forecast is in the guide to PMD's tourist forecast for Murree, Kalam and Hunza.

Still, dry air is the smog setting for Punjab

Dry weather and light winds let smoke and dust pile up over the plains, and the Punjab EPA's dashboard showed what that means on the morning of 19 October: Lahore at 265, Unhealthy, with wind at 0.4 metres a second and humidity at 86 per cent. The PMD outlook lists no rain for Punjab in the whole week, so nothing in the forecast will wash the air.

The two things that change this are a westerly wave or a strong wind, and neither is in the outlook before 24 October. The department's own autumn view, in the PMD autumn outlook, already flagged smog risk late in the season. If you live in central Punjab, the live reading on the EPA dashboard matters more this week than the weather map, and the guide to checking Lahore's air quality shows where to find it.

What to do with a dry week

For most people a dry, warm week in late October needs no plan. For a few groups it does.

1. Rainfed wheat growers in Punjab should sow while the soil still holds the mid-October rain, because no more is forecast before the 24th.
2. Drivers on the northern roads can expect clear days but cold nights and early frost on high passes.
3. Karachi and interior Sindh should treat 19 and 20 October as summer days: water, shade and no midday exertion.
4. Central Punjab should check the AQI each morning, since dry still air keeps smog in place.
5. Gas users in the north should expect the first cold nights, which is when heater and geyser accidents start.

The fog season on the motorways usually starts later, but the guide to PMD's motorway fog update is worth bookmarking now, and the safety rules in using a gas heater or geyser safely apply from the first cold night.

Common questions

Will it rain in Lahore this week?

No. PMD's outlook lists no rain for Punjab from 19 to 24 October 2026. Lahore's daytime high is 31 to 33 degrees.

How hot will Karachi be?

38 to 40 degrees on 19 October and 39 to 41 on 20 October, with humidity of 31 per cent, according to the PMD forecast issued on 18 October.

Where will it rain?

Only at isolated places in Gilgit-Baltistan, Chitral and Ghizer, Kashmir, and upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on different days, and only lightly.

Is it getting cold in the north?

Yes at night. PMD says cold conditions in the morning and at night in northern areas, upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan. Murree's daytime high is 19 to 21.

When does the next rain come?

The outlook runs to 24 October and shows nothing for the plains. PMD updates the weekly outlook on weather.gov.pk, so check it after the 24th.

How we verified this

What we checked, where we read it, and what we could not confirm.

Last checked 19 October 2026. The day-by-day outlook and the synoptic line come from the PMD weekly weather outlook issued 18 October 2026. City temperatures and humidity come from the PMD daily weather forecast issued at 5:30 pm on 18 October 2026. Both were read on 19 October. The Lahore AQI, wind and humidity are from the Punjab EPA dashboard at 3:00 am on 19 October. We could not verify the inconsistent Dir and Malam Jabba figures on the daily sheet and left them out.