SBP Minutes Show 3 of 10 Members Voted to Raise Pakistan's Policy Rate in September
SBP minutes for 14 September 2026 show 3 of 10 members voted to raise the rate by 100 basis points. See the vote, the risks they named and what to do next.
Three of the ten members of the State Bank of Pakistan's Monetary Policy Committee voted to raise the policy rate by 100 basis points on 14 September 2026. The other seven voted to hold it at 11.5 per cent, and the hold won.
That detail was not in the September statement. It comes from the meeting's minutes, which the State Bank published on 9 October 2026. We read all four pages. In July, the same committee had voted unanimously to hold.
Three members voted to raise the rate to 12.5 per cent
The SBP minutes say the committee kept the policy rate unchanged "with a majority vote of seven out of ten members" and that "three members voted to increase the policy rate by 100 bps". A 100 basis point rise would have taken the rate from 11.5 to 12.5 per cent.
The minutes do not name who voted which way. They list the ten members: the Governor, three Deputy Governors, three SBP board directors and three external members.
When the decision was announced on 14 September, we noted that the statement did not say what the three other members wanted. Now we know. They did not want a cut. They wanted a rise.
July's hold was unanimous, September's was split
The committee's mood moved in seven weeks. On 27 July 2026, the minutes of that meeting record that "the MPC unanimously decided to keep the policy rate unchanged". By 14 September, three members wanted tighter money.
| Meeting | Decision | Vote |
|---|---|---|
| 27 July 2026 | Hold at 11.5% | Unanimous |
| 14 September 2026 | Hold at 11.5% | 7 for hold, 3 for a 100 bps rise |
| 26 October 2026 | Next decision | Minutes due 20 November |
A split like this does not mean a rise is coming. Seven members still voted to hold. But it shows which way the risk leans. Anyone expecting a rate cut on 26 October should read these minutes first.
Oil, wheat and the Middle East worried the committee
The staff told the committee that the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz was still hurting trade, and that energy prices had risen again since July. LNG prices also rose after supplies from Qatar fell, the minutes say.
Food was the other worry. Inflation was 9.2 per cent in July and 11.1 per cent in August 2026, driven by wheat, flour and perishable food. Core inflation, which leaves out food and energy, rose to 8.7 per cent from 8.4 per cent.
Three more points stood out:
- The chance of a "Super El Nino", a strong warming of the Pacific that can hurt crops, has risen since July.
- Consumers, businesses and professional forecasters all now expect higher inflation than before.
- The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are now expected to keep their rates higher for longer.
The State Bank still expects inflation to ease towards 7 per cent, the top of its 5 to 7 per cent target, by June 2027. It says the risks to that view have increased.
Remittances are projected at $44 billion this year
The minutes give a number the September statement did not: workers' remittances are projected at $44 billion for 2026-27. That is above last year's record of $41.6 billion. The staff said it holds even with fewer workers than usual going to Gulf countries.
The first three months support it. Remittances reached $10.9 billion from July to September, up 14 per cent, as shown in September's remittance figures.
Other numbers from the minutes:
| Indicator | Figure in the minutes |
|---|---|
| GDP growth forecast, 2026-27 | 3.5% to 4.5% |
| Fiscal deficit, 2025-26 | 2.6% of GDP, target was 3.9% |
| Primary surplus, 2025-26 | 2.9% of GDP, target was 2.4% |
| Private sector credit growth | 13.4% a year, at 28 August |
| Overnight repo rate, average | 11.53% |
| Current account deficit, 2026-27 | 0% to 1% of GDP |
Market yields rose by up to 68 basis points
The minutes say the secondary market yield curve, meaning what government bonds pay when traded between banks, moved up by 10 to 68 basis points between the July and September meetings. In July, the same curve had fallen by 26 to 47 basis points.
Rising yields mean lenders want more to lend to the government. They also push up KIBOR, the benchmark most car, home and business loans follow. The KIBOR rate today is the number to watch if your loan resets in the next few months.
What a borrower or saver should do before 26 October
The next decision is on 26 October 2026. Here is a simple plan:
- Check when your loan rate resets. Most bank loans reset every three, six or twelve months against KIBOR.
- Work out your payment at a rate one percentage point higher. If it would strain you, talk to your bank before the reset date.
- If you are saving, do not lock long-term deposits only because you expect cuts. These minutes do not point to cuts.
- Read the 26 October statement for the vote count. A second split vote would matter more than the first.
The way a one point change feeds into a monthly instalment is set out in what the policy rate does to your loan EMI. What each outcome would mean is covered in the 26 October SBP meeting.
Common questions
What did the SBP MPC minutes of September 2026 reveal?
They revealed that three of the ten members voted to raise the policy rate by 100 basis points, to 12.5 per cent. Seven voted to hold it at 11.5 per cent.
When were the September 2026 MPC minutes published?
On 9 October 2026, on the State Bank's monetary policy page, as set in its advance calendar.
Was the July 2026 decision also split?
No. The July 2026 minutes say the committee decided unanimously to keep the rate unchanged.
Will the State Bank raise the rate on 26 October 2026?
Nobody outside the committee knows. The September minutes show a minority wanted a rise, and none asked for a cut. The decision will depend on October's data.
What is Pakistan's policy rate now?
11.5 per cent, unchanged at the September meeting.
How we verified this
What we checked, where we read it, and what we could not confirm.
Last checked on 9 October 2026. The vote, the members list, the staff assessment, the $44 billion remittance projection, the fiscal and credit figures and the yield curve move are from the minutes of the MPC meeting held on 14 September 2026. The July vote and yield curve fall are from the minutes of the 27 July 2026 meeting. Meeting and minutes dates are from the advance calendar on the State Bank's monetary policy page.
About the author
Global Affairs & Political Economy Writer
Muhammad Hatim is a book lover who started writing because he enjoys it. At Pakistan Era he writes about international relations, geopolitics and the global economy, with a particular interest in South Asia and the forces behind current events.
