SBP's Next Monetary Policy Meeting Is 26 October 2026: What a Hold or Cut Means

The State Bank of Pakistan's next Monetary Policy Committee meeting is on Monday 26 October 2026. The policy rate is 11.5 per cent today. The State Bank will publish its decision and statement the same day, with a press conference after it.

We read that date on the State Bank's own advance calendar for FY27 on 6 October 2026. The same page lists every meeting until June 2027, so you can plan a car loan, a home loan or a savings decision around them.

Inflation has also moved since the last meeting. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics put September inflation at 10.26 per cent, down from 11.1 per cent in August. That is the main new number the committee will look at.

The next SBP rate decision is due on 26 October 2026

The Monetary Policy Committee meets on 26 October 2026 and announces the policy rate that day. The State Bank also lists an analyst briefing on 27 October and the meeting's minutes on 20 November. Minutes of the September meeting are due on 9 October.

The State Bank adds one condition to its calendar. If something unexpected happens on a meeting date, it will announce a new date. So treat 26 October as firm unless the State Bank says otherwise.

Where the policy rate stands before the meeting

The policy rate is 11.5 per cent. It has stayed there since a 100 basis point rise on 27 April 2026, with holds on 27 July and 14 September. The September hold was a majority vote of seven out of ten members.

The State Bank's interest rate corridor sits around the policy rate. Banks can borrow overnight from the State Bank at 12.5 per cent, the ceiling, and park money at 10.5 per cent, the floor. Both figures were on sbp.org.pk on 6 October.

The September decision is explained in the State Bank's hold at 11.5 per cent.

The numbers the committee will weigh on 26 October

September inflation of 10.26 per cent is the biggest new input. It is lower than August, but prices still rose 1.27 per cent in a single month, and the housing, electricity and gas group rose 3.05 per cent. The State Bank's target is 5 to 7 per cent over the medium term.

• Inflation: 10.26 per cent year on year in September, from 11.1 per cent in August. The July to September average was 10.20 per cent. The detail is in September's inflation figures.
• Real interest rate: 11.5 minus 10.26 gives a gap of about 1.2 points. That is our own arithmetic using last month's inflation. The State Bank judges the real rate against expected inflation, not past inflation.
• Market rates: on 5 October, the 3 month KIBOR offer rate was 11.97 per cent, 6 month 12.39 and 12 month 12.68, all above the policy rate.
• Risks the State Bank named in September: the Middle East conflict pushing up commodity prices, supply disruptions, electricity and gas price changes, and food prices.

Our reading of KIBOR is simple. When longer KIBOR rates sit above the policy rate, banks are not pricing in a quick cut. That is an observation, not a forecast. Nobody outside the committee knows the decision before 26 October.

What a hold, cut or rise would mean for you

A hold changes nothing for a variable rate loan. A cut lowers your instalment at your next reset date. A rise does the opposite. Savings returns move in the same direction as the rate, but more slowly.

To see the size of the effect, take a Rs 2 million car loan over 5 years at an illustrative 17 per cent. The instalment is about Rs 49,705 a month. If the rate drops one point to 16 per cent, it falls to about Rs 48,636, roughly Rs 1,070 less. A one point rise takes it to about Rs 50,787.

For a Rs 8 million home loan over 20 years at an illustrative 16 per cent, the instalment is about Rs 111,300. One point lower saves around Rs 5,960 a month. These rates are examples for the arithmetic, not any bank's rate card.

The mechanics of KIBOR, spreads and resets are in how the policy rate moves your loan EMI. Real bank figures for car loans are in what a car loan in Pakistan actually costs.

What to do before 26 October

Do not rush a big money decision for one meeting. Check what kind of loan you have, when it resets, and whether your savings are locked in. Then wait for the statement, which comes out the same day.

1. Find your loan agreement and note whether the rate is fixed or tied to KIBOR.
2. Note the reset dates in the contract, because a new rate only reaches your instalment on those dates.
3. If you plan to borrow soon, ask two or three banks for their spread over KIBOR. The spread is set by the bank and is negotiable.
4. If you save, compare a fixed term product with a variable one. National Savings rates are set separately by the government and change on their own dates, listed in National Savings profit rates.
5. On 26 October, read the State Bank's statement on sbp.org.pk, not a forwarded message.

Common questions

When is the next SBP monetary policy meeting?

Monday 26 October 2026, according to the State Bank's FY27 calendar. The one after that is 14 December 2026.

What is the SBP policy rate now?

11.5 per cent, unchanged since 27 April 2026. The corridor ceiling is 12.5 per cent and the floor is 10.5 per cent.

Will the State Bank cut the rate in October?

Nobody outside the committee knows. Inflation eased to 10.26 per cent in September, but KIBOR on 5 October sat above the policy rate, which suggests banks are not expecting a fast cut.

When does a rate cut reach my car loan instalment?

At your next KIBOR reset date in the loan contract, not on the day of the decision. A fixed rate loan does not change at all.

What time is the decision announced?

The calendar gives the date, not the time. The statement and press conference are both listed for 26 October 2026.

How we verified this

What we checked, where we read it, and what we could not confirm.

Last checked 6 October 2026. We read the meeting dates on the State Bank's monetary policy page, which carries the FY27 advance calendar, and the policy rate, corridor and KIBOR figures on the sbp.org.pk home page on the same date. The 14 September decision and its seven of ten vote come from the State Bank's Monetary Policy Statement of that date. September inflation of 10.26 per cent is from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics press release of 1 October 2026. The real rate gap, the KIBOR reading and the loan instalments are our own arithmetic and interpretation, using example rates. Nothing here is financial advice.