Weekly Inflation in Pakistan Slows to 0.21% as Chicken Jumps 7.25%

Weekly inflation in Pakistan slowed to 0.21% in the week ended 1 October 2026, down from 0.99% the week before. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) put its Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) at 370.46 in a release dated 2 October. Prices were 11.53% higher than a year earlier.

Chicken drove almost all of the rise. A live broiler went up 7.25% in a single week, to Rs 365.31 a kilo. Diesel, bananas, sugar and petrol got cheaper and pulled the other way.

We read the PBS release page and its executive summary PDF on 3 October 2026. Every figure below comes from those two documents.

Weekly inflation slowed to 0.21% and the SPI reached 370.46

The SPI for the week ended 1 October 2026 was 370.46, up 0.21% from 369.69 a week earlier. That is a much smaller rise than last week's 0.99%. Prices still went up, but far more slowly than in late September.

Of the 51 items PBS tracks, 20 went up, 10 went down and 21 did not move. That split is the same as last week. What changed is the size of the moves. No item jumped the way electricity did a week ago.

The yearly rate also eased, from 11.92% to 11.53%. A basket that cost Rs 1,000 in the first week of October 2025 now costs about Rs 1,115. That is our own arithmetic on the PBS figure.

Chicken rose 7.25% and caused most of the weekly increase

A live broiler chicken rose from Rs 340.63 to Rs 365.31 a kilo, up 7.25%. PBS also lists how much each item added to the index. Chicken added 0.22 percentage points, which is slightly more than the whole 0.21% rise.

So without chicken, the SPI would have been flat or slightly down. Garlic, gram pulse, LPG and eggs also rose, but each by less than 2%. These are the biggest weekly increases, as average prices across 17 cities:

PBS does not say why chicken went up. It only records the price. Chicken prices often swing week to week, so one jump is not yet a trend.

The LPG number needs a word of care. PBS records what shoppers actually paid, Rs 5,103 on average for an 11.67 kg cylinder. That is far above the official LPG price for October, which OGRA capped at Rs 3,296.23 for an 11.8 kg cylinder. PBS does not explain the gap.

Diesel, bananas and sugar got cheaper this week

Ten items fell in price. Diesel dropped the most, down 3.43% to an average of Rs 402.53 a litre. Bananas fell 1.52%, sugar 1.05%, potatoes 0.96% and petrol 0.65%. Electricity for the lowest spending group did not change.

• Diesel: Rs 416.84 to Rs 402.53 a litre, down 3.43%
• Bananas: Rs 140.79 to Rs 138.65 a dozen, down 1.52%
• Sugar: Rs 145.05 to Rs 143.52 a kilo, down 1.05%
• Potatoes: Rs 51.09 to Rs 50.60 a kilo, down 0.96%
• Petrol: Rs 392.07 to Rs 389.51 a litre, down 0.65%
• Tomatoes: Rs 152.34 to Rs 151.57 a kilo, down 0.51%

The fuel figures are PBS weekly averages, not the pump price on one day. The petrol price from 3 October went up to Rs 392.76, after this survey week ended. So next week's SPI may show fuel rising again.

Electricity for Q1 stayed at Rs 7.66 a unit. That matters, because its 18.76% jump drove last week's big rise.

Onions and LPG still lead the year-on-year rises

Compared with the week ended 2 October 2025, onions cost 114.20% more, more than double. LPG is up 66.59%, electricity for Q1 58.59%, diesel 44.50% and petrol 44.05%. Wheat flour is up 32.65% on the year.

A 20 kg bag of flour now averages Rs 2,697.45, against Rs 2,033.45 a year ago. That is Rs 664 more for the same bag. An LPG cylinder costs Rs 2,040 more than it did in October 2025.

Some staples are cheaper than last year. Tomatoes are down 45.52%, from Rs 278.19 to Rs 151.57 a kilo. Potatoes are down 39.54%, sugar 21.95% and eggs 17.47%. That relief is real, but it is spread across small items, while fuel, power and flour weigh heavily in a monthly budget.

Four weeks show the weekly rise cooling

The weekly rise had grown two weeks in a row, and now it fell back to 0.21%. The yearly rate dipped for the first time in four weeks, from 11.92% to 11.53%. It is still well above the 8.62% recorded on 10 September.

The week to 24 September was driven by an electricity jump, as we reported in the SPI for 24 September. This week the driver was chicken, and its effect was much smaller.

The monthly picture is different. The official inflation rate for September 2026 was 10.3%, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The SPI covers fewer items and moves faster, so the two rarely match.

All five income groups saw almost the same weekly rise

PBS splits households into five spending groups, from Q1 (the lowest) to Q5 (the highest). This week every group saw a rise between 0.19% and 0.22%. Over the year, Q5 faces the highest rate at 11.99%, and Q1 the lowest at 9.00%.

Fuel explains much of the gap between groups. In the PBS weights, petrol counts for 6.70% of the combined index but only 1.47% for Q1. With petrol up 44.05% on the year, better-off homes that drive more feel it more.

The SPI checks 51 items in 17 cities every week

The SPI is a weekly check on 51 essential items, collected from 50 markets in 17 cities. PBS uses it to watch short-term price moves. It is not the official inflation rate, which comes from the monthly CPI.

Here is how to read the weekly number:

1. PBS collects prices of 51 items, such as flour, milk, chicken, fuel and cloth, in 17 cities.
2. It weights each item by how much households spend on it.
3. It compares the result with the week before and the same week last year.
4. It reports one combined figure plus a figure for each of the five spending groups.

The SPI leaves out rent, school fees, medicines and transport fares. It covers cities only. So your own costs may rise faster or slower than 0.21% in a week, depending on what you buy and where you live.

Common questions

What was Pakistan's SPI inflation for the week ended 1 October 2026?

It rose 0.21% over the week, and the SPI stood at 370.46. Prices were 11.53% higher than in the same week of 2025, according to PBS.

Why did chicken prices go up this week?

PBS does not give a reason. It records that a live broiler rose 7.25%, from Rs 340.63 to Rs 365.31 a kilo, across 17 cities.

Did weekly inflation go down?

No. Prices still rose, by 0.21%. The rise was smaller than last week's 0.99%, and the yearly rate eased from 11.92% to 11.53%.

Which items got cheaper this week?

Diesel fell 3.43%, bananas 1.52%, sugar 1.05%, potatoes 0.96% and petrol 0.65%. Moong and masoor pulses, tomatoes, gur and powdered milk also eased slightly.

When is the next SPI release?

PBS usually posts the SPI on Friday for the week ended the day before. The next release should cover the week ended 8 October 2026.

How we verified this

What we checked, where we read it, and what we could not confirm.

We last checked this on 3 October 2026. We read the PBS release for the week ended 1 October 2026, published on 2 October, and its executive summary PDF, which holds the item prices, weights, impacts, quintile table and ten-week trend. The OGRA LPG cap comes from OGRA's October notification. All prices are PBS averages across 17 cities and may differ from your local market.