ADB Forecast for Pakistan: 3.7% Growth and 8.3% Inflation in FY27, the Gentlest of the Three Lenders
The ADB's September 2026 outlook puts Pakistan's growth at 3.7% in FY26 and FY27 and inflation at 7.1% then 8.3%. See how it compares with the IMF and the Bank.
The Asian Development Bank expects Pakistan's economy to grow 3.7 per cent in both FY26 and FY27, with inflation rising from 7.1 per cent to 8.3 per cent, according to its Asian Development Outlook of September 2026. The ADB is the most optimistic of the three big lenders on growth and the gentlest on prices, and the gap between it and the IMF on FY27 inflation is 1.6 points.
We read the ADB's Pakistan economy page, which carries the September 2026 outlook figures, and the outlook's edition page on 19 October 2026. The edition was published on 1 September 2026 under the theme of prolonged energy shocks and El Niño. Pakistan's financial year runs July to June, so FY27 is the year to June 2027, the one the current budget covers.
The ADB sees 3.7 per cent growth in FY26 and again in FY27
The ADB's page gives 3.7 per cent for FY26, which ended in June, and 3.7 per cent for FY27. It credits better credit conditions and a broad-based recovery for the FY26 figure. The government has used the same 3.7 per cent for FY26 in its Bangkok statements, while the IMF estimates 3.6 per cent, so the ADB and the government agree on last year.
| Forecaster and edition | Growth FY26 | Growth FY27 | Inflation FY26 | Inflation FY27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian Development Bank, September 2026 | 3.7% | 3.7% | 7.1% | 8.3% |
| IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2026 | 3.6% | 3.5% | 7.1% | 9.9% |
| World Bank, Macro Poverty Outlook, October 2026 | not on its page | 3.8% | not on its page | 8.2% |
On FY27 growth the three sit within 0.3 points of each other. The ADB's 3.7 per cent is flat on the year, which is a quieter view than the World Bank's 3.8 or the IMF's 3.5. The IMF figures are set out in our report on the IMF's October 2026 outlook for Pakistan, and the World Bank's in our report on the World Bank forecast for FY27.
Inflation of 8.3 per cent in FY27 as import costs keep passing through
The ADB estimates inflation at 7.1 per cent for FY26, the same as the IMF, and forecasts 8.3 per cent for FY27. Its one-line reason is that import costs continue to pass through to consumer prices. In plain terms, the oil and freight bills of the Middle East conflict are still working their way into what shops charge.
That is the gentler end of the range. The IMF's 9.9 per cent average for FY27 assumes more of the shock reaches prices. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics printed 10.3 per cent for September 2026, as our report on September 2026 inflation showed, so the ADB's forecast needs the monthly rate to fall through the year to average 8.3. Possible, if oil keeps easing, but it is the hopeful case.
What the ADB's number means for a household and a borrower
An 8.3 per cent average means a salary needs a raise of about that much to buy the same basket in FY27 as in FY26. The State Bank, which the IMF has told to stay tight, is unlikely to cut the 11.5 per cent policy rate quickly while any of the three forecasters sees inflation above 8 per cent, so loan rates stay where they are for now.
For a business, the ADB's flat 3.7 per cent growth says demand grows at about the same pace as last year. That is better than the near-zero years of FY23 and FY24, and nowhere near the 6 per cent runs of FY21 and FY22. Plan for a steady year, not a boom.
The ADB is Pakistan's largest project lender, with $45.8 billion committed since 1966
The ADB's Pakistan page says the bank has committed 789 public sector loans, grants, guarantees and technical assistance to Pakistan worth $45.8 billion, and that its resident mission in Islamabad opened in 1989. That history is why the ADB's forecast matters beyond the number: its own project pipeline is built on it.
Two of those projects are live in our coverage. Pakistan Railways is tendering the ML-1 Karachi to Rohri upgrade with ADB financing in view, as our report on the ML-1 Karachi to Rohri upgrade explained, and the ADB and Pakistan agreed an export accelerator programme in September, covered in our report on the ADB export accelerator programme. In Bangkok on 14 October the AIIB said it could co-finance ML-1 with the ADB. The ADB's own news page listed no new Pakistan loan approval in September or October 2026 when we checked.
How to check the ADB's Pakistan forecast yourself
The ADB updates its outlook twice a year, in April and September, with shorter supplements in between. The figures are on a public page and take a minute to find.
- Open the ADB's Pakistan economy page under "Where we work".
- Read the GDP growth and inflation boxes. Each shows the current and next financial year.
- Note which edition the page cites. On 19 October 2026 it cited the September 2026 outlook.
- Open the outlook edition page for the publication date and the regional narrative.
- If you have a complaint about an ADB-funded project rather than a forecast question, the route is in our guide to complaining about a World Bank or ADB project.
Common questions
What is the ADB growth forecast for Pakistan in 2027?
3.7 per cent for FY27, the year to June 2027, the same as its 3.7 per cent estimate for FY26, according to the Asian Development Outlook of September 2026.
What inflation does the ADB expect in Pakistan?
7.1 per cent in FY26 and 8.3 per cent in FY27, because import costs continue to pass through to consumer prices.
How does the ADB forecast compare with the IMF?
The ADB is higher on FY27 growth, 3.7 against 3.5 per cent, and lower on FY27 inflation, 8.3 against 9.9 per cent.
When was the ADB forecast published?
The Asian Development Outlook September 2026 edition was published on 1 September 2026, and the ADB's Pakistan page carried its figures on 19 October 2026.
How much has the ADB lent Pakistan?
The ADB's Pakistan page counts 789 public sector loans, grants, guarantees and technical assistance worth $45.8 billion.
How we verified this
What we checked, where we read it, and what we could not confirm.
Last checked 19 October 2026. The growth and inflation figures, the one-line reasons and the $45.8 billion portfolio are from the ADB's Pakistan economy page, and the 1 September 2026 publication date and theme are from the Asian Development Outlook September 2026 edition page, both read on 19 October 2026. The IMF figures are from the IMF DataMapper's October 2026 series, read the same day. We could not open the outlook's Pakistan chapter, which returned an error, so the current account forecast and the fuller narrative are unread.
About the author
Global Affairs & Political Economy Writer
Muhammad Hatim is a book lover who started writing because he enjoys it. At Pakistan Era he writes about international relations, geopolitics and the global economy, with a particular interest in South Asia and the forces behind current events.
