When Will Winter Start in Pakistan 2026? NDMA Outlook for November and December, Province by Province

Winter 2026 is expected to start late and mild in most of Pakistan. The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) says the switch to cool weather is "likely to be delayed", with the first sharp cold spells from late November and real cold waves mainly in December. November should be warmer than normal almost everywhere, and wetter than normal in the north and in Balochistan.

That comes from the NDMA's Disaster Early Warning outlook for October to December 2026, a report of more than 60 pages from its National Emergency Operations Centre that we read on 1 November. Below is the outlook for each province, what past Novembers looked like, and what it means for your gas bill, your commute and your trip north.

Winter will start late, with cold spells from late November

The NDMA expects normal to above-normal temperatures across most of Pakistan through December. It says the seasonal cooling is likely to be delayed, and that a strengthening Siberian High from late November may bring episodic cold-air outbreaks and speed up the move to winter.

The Siberian High is a huge pool of cold, heavy air over Central Asia that builds every winter. When it pushes south, Pakistan gets sudden cold snaps. The report says these may cause "sharp but episodic" temperature drops and cold-wave conditions, particularly in December.

Two global drivers sit behind the mild forecast. The NDMA puts the chance of El Niño, a warm phase of the Pacific, at nearly 100 per cent for the whole period. It also expects a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, a warm western Indian Ocean, peaking near +1.0 °C in October.

November 2026 outlook for every province

November should be warmer than normal across Pakistan, most of all around Lahore and Faisalabad. Rain should be above normal in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, Azad Kashmir, northern Punjab and northern Balochistan, while Sindh stays near normal or a little drier.

The national summary and the provincial pages do not match perfectly. The summary calls Karachi and Sukkur "near normal" for rain, while the Punjab page expects a wetter November across most of the province. Both come from the same set of computer models, so read the province you live in.

December 2026 should be mild in the plains, wetter in the north

For December the NDMA expects near-normal to slightly above-normal temperatures in Lahore, Islamabad, Sukkur, Karachi and Quetta, with cooler pockets only in the far northern mountains. Rain should be near normal, with a small wet signal around Islamabad, Peshawar and the northern hills.

Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Kashmir are the exception. The report expects a warmer but wetter December there, with more rain and snowfall than usual. In plain words, December may not feel as cold as some recent winters in the plains, but the cold-wave days that do come could be sudden.

Past Novembers show how wide the range can be

Between 2020 and 2025, November highs ranged from 30 to 36 °C in Sindh and south-east Balochistan down to 12 to 18 °C in northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan. November 2024 was the warmest, at 33 to 36 °C across much of Sindh.

Rain swings even more. November 2020 brought more than 180 mm in parts of northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, while November 2021 peaked at only 20 to 25 mm, the NDMA's review of observed data shows. December 2025 was very warm in south-east Sindh, above 30 °C near Mithi. So a seasonal outlook tells you the tilt, not the weather on a given day.

What a late, mild winter means for you

Expect lighter heating needs in November in the plains, then sudden cold nights from late November. Keep heaters serviced before then, watch the weekly forecast, and plan northern trips around the wet spells the NDMA expects.

1. Service gas heaters and geysers now, before the first cold spell, and follow the rules for using a gas heater safely.
2. Check the PMD weekly forecast every few days; the current one is the forecast for 31 October to 5 November.
3. Track cold nights in your city with the PMD minimum temperature list.
4. Before a mountain trip, prepare the car for snow and ice using the NDMA winter car checklist.
5. Learn the signs of hypothermia and frostbite if older relatives live in cold areas.

Office and school timings change on their own dates, set by each government, and are listed under winter office timings for 2026. The NDMA outlook does not change them.

Common questions

When will winter start in Pakistan in 2026?

The NDMA expects a delayed, mild start, with cold spells from late November and cold waves mainly in December.

Will November 2026 be cold?

Probably not very. The NDMA expects above-normal temperatures in every province, most of all around Lahore and Faisalabad.

Will it rain in November 2026?

Rain should be above normal in the north, KP, Gilgit-Baltistan, AJK, northern Punjab and northern Balochistan. Sindh should stay near normal.

Why is this winter expected to be mild?

The NDMA points to a near-certain El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, both linked to warmer conditions.

Will Karachi get a proper winter in 2026?

The outlook expects Karachi to stay a little warmer than normal in November and near normal to slightly above in December.

Is this forecast certain?

No. It is a seasonal outlook from computer models. It shows the likely tilt, and daily weather can still differ.

How we verified this

What we checked, where we read it, and what we could not confirm.

Last checked 1 November 2026. Everything above comes from the NDMA's Disaster Early Warning outlook for October to December 2026 (DEW-4), which we downloaded from the NDMA website and read in full on 1 November. The report does not carry an exact issue date, only an October 2026 file path. It is a model outlook, not a PMD forecast, so check the weekly PMD forecast for day-to-day weather.